2024 Second Half Housing Market Outlook

As we move into the second half of 2024, here are the expert predictions on home prices, mortgage rates, and home sales trends.

Home Prices: Gradual Increase Expected

Home prices are expected to rise at a more stable rate. As shown in the graph below, the latest forecasts from seven reputable industry sources all predict an increase in home prices.

As I always emphasize, the reason home prices continue to rise is due to a lack of supply.

Although inventory has increased in recent years, it is still insufficient overall. This persistent shortage will keep upward pressure on home prices. If you are considering purchasing a home, prices are not expected to spike rapidly as they did during the pandemic, but they are also unlikely to fall. Instead, a slow increase is anticipated.

Therefore, entering the market now could be more advantageous in the long term. Experts predict that the value of homes will continue to appreciate after purchase.

Mortgage Rates: Slight Decline Expected

As illustrated in the graph below, the good news for both buyers and sellers is that mortgage rates are expected to decrease slightly. According to forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), rates are expected to decline gradually.

Even a slight drop in mortgage rates can significantly impact monthly payments. For sellers, lower rates can attract more buyers, offering the opportunity to sell homes more quickly and at higher prices. If you have been hesitating to sell your home due to current rates, this might be a good time to reconsider.

Home Sales: Steady Trend

The number of home sales in 2024 is expected to remain stable or increase slightly compared to last year. The graph below compares the 2024 home sales forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR to the 4.8 million homes sold last year:

Averaging the predictions from the three organizations, about 5 million homes are expected to be sold in 2024. This represents a slight increase from 2023.

With more homes entering the market and mortgage rates decreasing, more homes are likely to be sold compared to last year. However, an increase in sales volume does not necessarily mean a drop in prices. Given the ongoing supply shortage, home prices are expected to continue rising.

If you have any further questions, feel free to reach out anytime.